CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-12-10T09:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-12-10T09:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35557/-1
CME Note: A very slow CME/outflow that follows even slower outflows/fronts that start as early as 2024-12-10T02Z. The source of it could be continuous activity in AR 3920 since this morning (~ location N22E37 at 02Z) which is marked by brightening in SUVI 195. After 08Z there is a minor dimming around this Active Region which could mark the eruption that might be associated with the 2024-12-10T09:53Z front.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-15T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35561/1 Model Inputs: 2024-12-10T09:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-36.0, Lat.=37.0, Speed=222.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2024-12-11T00:55Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-15T08:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=3 Other Location(s) Impact: Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-16T02:00Z Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-15T08:00Z Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-15T12:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241211_005600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gifLead Time: 108.18 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-10T19:49Z
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